Market Triangle | 05.12.2025
A proprietary model that evaluates the current state of the market using three core components — Trend, Breadth, and Momentum.
⦿ Trend → Short- and medium-term structure is improving, but the macro trend remains cautious.
Short-term (5D) → Positive
Medium-term (20D & 50D) → Positive
Long-term (200D) → Still Negative (sluggish to reverse)
⦿ Breadth → Breadth expanding across all timeframes, signaling broad-based participation.
4% Week → Positive
25% Quarter → Negative
52w NHL → Positive
⦿ Momentum: Momentum is building with stability — a favorable backdrop for sustained moves.
Velocity → Positive
Volatility → Positive (low and declining)
Markets are stabilizing and strengthening beneath the surface. With short- and mid-term trend signals aligning and breadth broadening, risk appetite is returning. Momentum confirms this view, especially with declining volatility. However, longer-term trends still need more time to fully flip bullish — so stay tactical, not euphoric.
Broader Market Analysis
Leaders of the Day:
XLY (Consumer Discretionary): +4.97% — Top gainer as growth stocks surge; relative momentum is accelerating.
XLK (Technology): +4.64% — Strong move confirms breakout above 20/50/200 SMAs; major institutional inflows noted.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): +4.07% — Tech-heavy index reclaims leadership; volatility continues to decline.
Broad Participation Across Risk-On Sectors:
SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM all posted 3–4%+ gains, signaling strong internal breadth and multi-cap participation.
Industrials (XLI) +3.08%, Materials (XLB) +2.32%, Energy (XLE) +2.61%: Cyclicals catching up in rotation.
Financials (XLF): +2.03% — Continues its steady climb with positive momentum and strong M-IO activity.
Only Laggard:
XLU (Utilities): -0.60% — Defensive risk-off sector under pressure amid growth-driven market tone.
Strong sector-wide performance today confirms a risk-on tone in markets, with aggressive rotation into growth, tech, and discretionary names. Participation is expanding, moving beyond mega-caps into mid/small-caps and cyclicals. This continues to support a tactical uptrend environment.
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