Market Triangle | 05.14.2025
A proprietary model that evaluates the current state of the market using three core components — Trend, Breadth, and Momentum.
The tone continues to improve across key dimensions, with trends holding firm and momentum steadily climbing. However, a shift in breadth readings suggests some short-term caution as fewer stocks are hitting new highs, indicating selective participation.
⦿ Trend → Short- and medium-term structure is strong, but the macro (long-term) trend is still lagging.
Short-term (5D) → Positive
Medium-term (20D & 50D) → Positive
Long-term (200D) → Still Negative (sluggish to reverse)
⦿ Breadth → Slight deterioration as fewer names are making new highs despite broader strength.
4% Week → Positive
25% Quarter → Positive
52w New High/Low (NHL) → Negative
⦿ Momentum → Still constructive. Velocity remains positive and volatility remains low — a bullish combination for sustained upside if breadth re-engages.
Velocity → Positive
Volatility (VIX) → Positive (low and declining)
The market remains in an improved technical posture, with trend and momentum aligned. However, internal breadth is showing signs of narrowing—fewer stocks are leading the charge. This calls for more tactical precision: stay with strength and avoid the laggards.
Risk appetite is still in play, but selectivity matters.
Broader Market Analysis
Short- and medium-term trends (20/50 SMA) remain bullish across QQQ, XLK, SPY, and XLY.
Long-term 200 SMA remains mostly supportive, but XLV and XLE are still dragging beneath it.
Momentum Internals (M-IO) favor growth: QQQ, XLK, and IBIT all show strong internal strength.
Momentum remains intact in tech and discretionary names. Broader market structure is still constructive, but cracks in defensives and cyclicals call for a tactical lens. Keep riding strength — but stay vigilant on fading breadth signals.
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