Market Triangle | 05.19.2025
A proprietary model that evaluates the current state of the market using three core components — Trend, Breadth, and Momentum.
⦿ Trend → Bullish
Short- and medium-term trend signals remain firmly bullish. The 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day trend signals are all aligned to the upside, reflecting continued strength in recent price action. The 200-day trend remains negative, indicating the longer-term trend still has ground to recover.
Short-term (5D) → Positive
Medium-term (20D & 50D) → Positive
Long-term (200D) → Negative (yet to confirm)
⦿ Breadth → Expanding
Breadth remains strong. The percentage of stocks up 4% on the week and 25% on the quarter are both positive, showing wide market participation. Crucially, the 52-week New High/Low (NHL) signal flipped back to positive, indicating breakout strength and an expanding leadership base.
4% Week → Positive
25% Quarter → Positive
52w New High/Low (NHL) → Positive
⦿ Momentum → Reaccelerating
Momentum is strengthening again. Velocity is positive and accelerating, and Delta has improved. The VIX remains stable and low — a bullish backdrop that reduces shock risk and supports continuation.
Velocity → Positive and reaccelerating
Volatility (VIX) → Positive (low and stable)
Market structure is highly constructive. Trends are aligned, breadth is expanding, and momentum is firming — a rare technical trifecta. While the 200-day trend still lags, the strength beneath the surface supports active long exposure in strong setups. Prioritize quality, manage trailing risk, and stay alert for any signs of exhaustion — but right now, strength deserves respect.
Broader Market Analysis
The market is still digesting gains with selective rotation. Defensive sectors, large caps, and AI/crypto-linked assets are favored. Keep an eye on Energy and Small Caps for reversal signs, while leaning into trend-following setups in stronger sectors like Industrials, Tech, and Financials.
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