Market Triangle | 05.20.2025
A proprietary model that evaluates the current state of the market using three core components — Trend, Breadth, and Momentum.
⦿ Trend → Bullish
Short- and medium-term trend signals remain firmly bullish. The 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day trends are all green, reflecting ongoing price strength. The 200-day trend is still negative, but this remains the only structural laggard in an otherwise strong trend environment.
Short-term (5D) → Positive
Medium-term (20D & 50D) → Positive
Long-term (200D) → Negative (yet to confirm)
⦿ Breadth → Expanding
Breadth continues to broaden meaningfully. The 4% weekly and 25% quarterly breadth readings remain green, and importantly, the 52-week New High/Low (NHL) reading has flipped positive again. This confirms wider market participation and breakout follow-through.
4% Week → Positive
25% Quarter → Positive
52w New High/Low (NHL) → Positive
⦿ Momentum → Reaccelerating
Momentum is showing renewed strength. Velocity is firmly positive and Delta has improved, suggesting acceleration in price movement. The VIX remains low and stable, reinforcing the market’s calm and bullish undertone.
Velocity → Positive and reaccelerating
Volatility (VIX) → Positive (low and stable)
Market structure is about as constructive as it gets: trends are aligned, breadth is expanding, and momentum is firming. While the long-term trend still lags, the near-term setup supports selective long exposure. Favor relative strength leaders, trail gains, and stay nimble — but right now, bulls have the edge.
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Broader Market Analysis
Despite today's softness in price action, the sector structure remains bullish under the hood. Trends are holding, momentum remains resilient, and leadership is rotating without major deterioration. Dips are being absorbed, and risk appetite is quietly supported by continued strength in crypto and select cyclicals. Monitor for follow-through in the next session — any strength from Tech (XLK) and Industrials (XLI) could set the tone.
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