Market Triangle | 05.27.2025
A proprietary model that evaluates the current state of the market using three core components — Trend, Breadth, and Momentum.
⦿ Trend → Stabilizing
The trend structure is showing early signs of recovery. The 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day trend signals have all turned green again, indicating short-term and medium-term momentum has regained footing. However, the 200-day trend remains firmly red, meaning the long-term picture still lacks confirmation and continues to weigh on broader structure.
Short-term (5D) → Positive
Medium-term (20D & 50D) → Positive
Long-term (200D) → Negative
⦿ Breadth → Rebounding
Breadth improved notably. The 4% Week reading flipped green, and 52-week New High/Low (NHL) also turned positive — a strong sign of expanding leadership and renewed breakout activity. 25% Quarter breadth remains green, supporting a healthy longer-term participation base.
4% Week → Positive
25% Quarter → Positive
52w New High/Low (NHL) → Positive
⦿ Momentum → Mixed but Improving
Momentum is attempting to stabilize. Velocity (VELO) turned green, showing price movement is picking up again. However, Delta (Δ) remains red, indicating that acceleration is still lacking — although the rate of decline is slowing. VIX has started to move lower, suggesting easing fear and a more supportive volatility backdrop.
Velocity (VELO) → Positive
Delta (Δ) → Negative but improving
Volatility (VIX) → Falling
The market is showing signs of stabilization after last week’s volatility. Short-term trends have firmed up, breadth is expanding again, and momentum is recovering — though not fully aligned. With VIX falling and breakouts returning, the environment is more constructive for selective long exposure. Still, the weak 200-day trend and lagging acceleration caution against full risk-on positioning. Stay focused on strength, manage exposure carefully, and monitor for sustained follow-through.
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Broader Market Analysis
The sector landscape is shifting bullish again, led by growth and risk-on areas like tech and discretionary. Broader breadth is improving, but caution remains warranted in defensive and cyclical sectors like healthcare and energy. If momentum continues and macro headwinds remain muted, we could see leadership expand — but traders should continue to focus on relative strength and breakout follow-through.
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