Market Triangle | 05.29.2025
A proprietary model that evaluates the current state of the market using three core components — Trend, Breadth, and Momentum.
⦿ Trend → Improving Again
Short-term and medium-term trend structure is regaining strength. The 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day trend signals are all green, showing a renewed uptrend across key timeframes. The 200-day trend remains red, signaling that while the rally is recovering, longer-term structure is still under pressure.
Short-term (5D) → Positive
Medium-term (20D & 50D) → Positive
Long-term (200D) → Negative
⦿ Breadth → Still Constructive
Breadth remains strong and supportive of further upside. All key metrics — 4% Week, 25% Quarter, and 52-week New High/Low (NHL) — remain green, reflecting solid participation across stocks and timeframes.
4% Week → Positive
25% Quarter → Positive
52w New High/Low (NHL) → Positive
⦿ Momentum → Stabilizing
Momentum is starting to firm up. Velocity (VELO) has flipped back to green, indicating a pickup in price movement. Delta (Δ) remains red but is no longer deteriorating aggressively, hinting at stabilization. Meanwhile, VIX continues to decline, reinforcing a backdrop of easing fear and improved sentiment.
Velocity (VELO) → Positive
Delta (Δ) → Negative but stabilizing
Volatility (VIX) → Falling
The market is attempting a technical reset after recent volatility. Trend alignment has improved across short- and medium-term timeframes, and momentum is beginning to stabilize. With breadth broad and VIX falling, the structure supports selective long exposure. However, the negative 200-day trend and cautious Delta signal this is still a fragile recovery. Stay nimble, monitor leadership closely, and trail gains while conditions re-align.
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Broader Market Analysis
The market remains broadly constructive, with leadership from Tech, Discretionary, and Industrials.
Momentum is rotating back into growth-oriented sectors, supported by strong VELO metrics and price action above key SMAs.
Small- and mid-cap stocks are improving but still trail large caps — watch for confirmation via breakout volume.
Stay selective — favor sectors above all major SMAs with rising velocity, and avoid those still showing weak relative strength or decelerating VELO (e.g., XLV, IBIT).
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