Market Triangle | 06.10.2025
A proprietary model that evaluates the current state of the market using three core components — Trend, Breadth, and Momentum.
⦿ Trend → Gaining Strength
The trend structure is improving across all key timeframes. The 5-day trend has flipped green, and both the 20-day and 50-day trends remain strong, showing persistent buying pressure and sustained directionality. While the 200-day trend is still red, it’s beginning to strengthen, hinting at the early stages of a longer-term recovery.
Short-term (5D) → Positive
Medium-term (20D & 50D) → Strong and aligned
Long-term (200D) → Still Negative but improving
⦿ Breadth → Broad and Supportive
Breadth remains clearly constructive. All participation metrics — 4% Weekly Breadth, 25% Quarterly Breadth, and 52-week High/Low readings — are firmly green, showing broad market engagement. This suggests the rally is not narrow, but backed by strong internal leadership and healthy rotation.
4% Week → Positive
25% Quarter → Positive
52w New High/Low (NHL) → Positive
⦿ Momentum → Strong and Rising
Momentum has reignited. Velocity (VELO) is green, confirming stronger price action and faster movement across equities. Delta (Δ) is also rising, showing a pickup in acceleration, while VIX remains in decline, further easing volatility pressure. This marks an environment supportive of breakouts and risk-on behavior.
Velocity (VELO) → Positive
Delta (Δ) → Positive and strengthening
Volatility (VIX) → Falling
The market is shifting back into offense mode. With trend alignment improving, breadth holding firm, and momentum accelerating, conditions are turning increasingly favorable for upside continuation. While the 200-day trend still lags, it’s beginning to catch up — a potential signal that longer-term conviction is returning. Traders can lean into strength, focus on leadership sectors, and trail stops higher — but stay attentive to any sharp reversals or failed breakouts as we test new highs.
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Broader Market Analysis
Stay overweight growth sectors (XLK, XLY, XLE) while trailing stops on extended names.
Watch IBIT for sentiment extremes — its breakout may signal broader risk-on confirmation.
Avoid chasing defensives like XLU/XLP unless they reclaim key moving averages.
Small caps (IWM) offer a tactical long opportunity with improving breadth and strong trend alignment.
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